Owl Adam Diary

Review the basic concept of probability on Christmas day

27-December-2018

Description:Indeed, it's barely to give you a rough idea about what is likely to happen. We still need actual data to verify and adjust the calculation. In reality, it's easy to do that.


Story:On the Christmas day, I didn't find Daisy. I knew, she prefer to stay alone in most of her time. She is a wired girl who doesn't really like other people getting into her world.

I was very tired as I didn't sleep well last night. I didn't want to anything except reading. I would choose what to read as my mood. I thought I should do revision, so, I picked up a Maths book to take a look what Probability is.

Once I say probability, my friends would say that do you want to win lotto? It's not about that, probability can be applied to weather forecast, medicine, statistics, social science, computer programming and even more. Ai and Machine Learning also use probability as a sort of their algorithms. Actually, I red a news to report that a full time gambler who won a huge amount of money in horse racing, another gambler won a lot of many at casino. They all are good at probability. It's not me and I will not make money by gambling surely. I hate gambling, I refuse to make money in any inappropriate ways.

I opened the book to read the Chapter 1, it talks about Discrete Probabilities. What's that? It's hard to understand by its name.

Discrete probability is used for predicting how high the chance of an independent event occurs. What's independent event? It can be anything, such as the probability of getting 2 dots if you toss a die. Every time you toss a die, you have 1/6 to get 1 or 2 or 3 or 4 or 5 or 6, each of them happens independently. This means that the chance of occurrence of one event which doesn't rely on another event.

Suppose I toss a die for 4 times, what is the probability to get 1 dot?

That's:
1/6 + 1/6 + 1/6 + 1/6 + 1/6 + 1/6
=4/6 =2/3

Wow, is that really such high a probability of getting 1 dot if I toss a die 4 times?

I can also say it's 2/3 chance to get 2, 3. 4. 5. 6 dots. Therefore, the conclusion isn't accurate indeed.

Many people would believe, probability is not accurate and it's useless.

Actually, it's barely to give you a rough idea about what is likely to happen. We still need actual data to verify and adjust the calculation. In reality, it's not easy to do that without using a high capacity computer.


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