Owl Adam Diary

Review the basic concept of probability on Christmas day


Description:Indeed, it's barely to give you a rough idea about what is likely to happen. We still need actual data to verify and adjust the calculation. In reality, it's easy to do that.

Story:On the Christmas day, I didn't find Daisy. I knew, she prefer to stay alone in most of her time. She is a wired girl who doesn't really like other people getting into her world.

I was very tired as I didn't sleep well last night. I didn't want to anything except reading. I would choose what to read as my mood. I thought I should do revision, so, I picked up a Maths book to take a look what Probability is.

Once I say probability, my friends would say that do you want to win lotto? It's not about that, probability can be applied to weather forecast, medicine, statistics, social science, computer programming and even more. Ai and Machine Learning also use probability as a sort of their algorithms. Actually, I red a news to report that a full time gambler who won a huge amount of money in horse racing, another gambler won a lot of many at casino. They all are good at probability. It's not me and I will not make money by gambling surely. I hate gambling, I refuse to make money in any inappropriate ways.

I opened the book to read the Chapter 1, it talks about Discrete Probabilities. What's that? It's hard to understand by its name.

Discrete probability is used for predicting how high the chance of an independent event occurs. What's independent event? It can be anything, such as the probability of getting 2 dots if you toss a die. Every time you toss a die, you have 1/6 to get 1 or 2 or 3 or 4 or 5 or 6, each of them happens independently. This means that the chance of occurrence of one event which doesn't rely on another event.

Suppose I toss a die for 4 times, what is the probability to get 1 dot?

1/6 + 1/6 + 1/6 + 1/6 + 1/6 + 1/6
=4/6 =2/3

Wow, is that really such high a probability of getting 1 dot if I toss a die 4 times?

I can also say it's 2/3 chance to get 2, 3. 4. 5. 6 dots. Therefore, the conclusion isn't accurate indeed.

Many people would believe, probability is not accurate and it's useless.

Actually, it's barely to give you a rough idea about what is likely to happen. We still need actual data to verify and adjust the calculation. In reality, it's not easy to do that without using a high capacity computer.


Gifts From The Devil or God

19-March, 2019

Description:The smartphone and video game are so evil to harm people. These are gifts from Devil. No, they aren’t. The evilest thing is people who don’t have good self-control...



17-March, 2019

Description:One drop, two drops, then countless drops of rain falling down on the ground. Johnson was all wet in the rain, but he didn't go inside the house. He was excitedly jumping in his paddy field. Johnson was no different from a child at that moment...



14-March, 2019

Description:Since I was a kid. I started to find my way to escape from reality. Initially, I escaped by watching cartoons on T.V. Until I was 10, I liked watching movies more. I found both of them could not fully satisfy me for some reasons, so, I tried to read novels. Once I was caught by the magic of novels, I couldn’t rip out of reading.



13-March, 2019

Description:Recreational fishing is also an activity for having fun by killing lives. The fish catchers drag the fish out of the water to the land, the fish catchers seem to be enjoyable while looking at the fish struggling distressingly.