Owl Adam Diary

Bayes Theorem is fun but confusing

26-November-2018

Description:Maths let me understand that one problem can be solved by different ways, and can have more than one correct answer, it depends on your point of view.


Story:
Recently, I haven't had any ideas to write for my blog. I don't why.

So, I am reading some books to inspire me. I am reading the book about Bayes Theorem. It's interesting but very easy to get confused.

Suppose a police offer is going to handle a case of robbery. The place is very close to him. He has 80% chance of meeting the robber. According to a statistical records, 22 in 54 robbers armed with handguns. He also know 50% chance of robbers would fire once they see the police. What is the possibility of "a robber being armed with a handgun" given that "the robber open fire once they see the police."  

P(A | B) = P(Gun | Shoot)

P(A) = P(Gun) = 22/54 = 0.4
P(B) = P( Shoot) = 0.5 
P(B | A) = 0.8

P(A | B) = 64%

The most confusing part is (B | A), I am not sure whether this part is correct or not. Anyway, I just tried to solve it with my own interpretation logically.

I like doing Maths, it let me understand that one problem can be solved by different ways, and can have more than one correct answer, it depends on your point of view. 


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